BTC Price Prediction: Navigating Volatility Amid $100K Support Battle
#BTC
- Technical Crossroads: BTC tests critical support at $100K with mixed momentum signals
- Sentiment Divergence: Negative headlines contrast with institutional infrastructure growth
- Volatility Window: High probability of 15%+ price swings in November
BTC Price Prediction
BTC Technical Analysis: Short-Term Bearish Pressure Amid Key Support Test
BTC currently trades at $102,261, below its 20-day moving average ($108,409), signaling bearish momentum. The MACD histogram (721.79) remains positive but shows weakening bullish divergence. Prices hover NEAR Bollinger Band's lower boundary ($100,509) - a decisive break could trigger accelerated selling.notes BTCC's Michael.
Mixed Sentiment as Macro and Institutional Developments Collide
Negative headlines dominate with Trump Media's underwater Bitcoin position and Peter Schiff's gold advocacy. However, ARK Invest's revised BTC targets and My First Bitcoin's educational expansion hint at long-term conviction.observes Michael.Ancient coin movements suggest profit-taking rather than loss capitulation.
Factors Influencing BTC’s Price
Arthur Hayes on Gold's Enduring Appeal Over Bitcoin for Sovereign Nations
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes recently dissected why governments still favor gold over Bitcoin as a reserve asset. The ancient metal's millennia-long track record as a store of value, physical tangibility, and global acceptance make it the default choice for risk-averse nations. Central banks particularly value gold's price stability compared to Bitcoin's volatility, using it as a hedge against currency fluctuations and geopolitical turmoil.
While bitcoin offers decentralized financial freedom, its relative youth and price swings render it unsuitable for sovereign balance sheets, Hayes argued. Gold's industrial applications in electronics and medicine further cement its long-term demand fundamentals. The dichotomy highlights the tension between traditional safe-haven assets and disruptive digital alternatives in global finance.
Trump Media's $2 Billion Bitcoin Bet Turns Sour as BTC Dips Below Acquisition Price
Trump Media and Technology Group's ambitious $2 billion Bitcoin treasury strategy faces headwinds as BTC's price decline leaves the holdings underwater. The company acquired BTC at an average of $118,000 in July, but the cryptocurrency now trades at $101,102—a 14.3% drop that erases paper gains on the position.
The firm reported $54.8 million in Q3 losses despite generating $28.7 million from Bitcoin-related income. Its DJT stock mirrored the crypto downturn, hitting a 52-week low amid broader market weakness. CEO Devin Nunes maintains the Bitcoin reserve serves as a long-term hedge, though Q4 may bring further losses if the crypto winter persists.
Corporate Bitcoin adoption faces its first major stress test since MicroStrategy pioneered the strategy. While TRUMP Media joins a growing list of public companies allocating treasury reserves to digital assets, volatile markets underscore the risks of such bets. The firm's $1.3 billion BTC position remains one of the largest corporate holdings despite recent depreciation.
ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood Revises Bitcoin Price Target Amid Stablecoin Surge
Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, has adjusted her long-term Bitcoin price target downward by $300,000, citing the rapid adoption of stablecoins in emerging markets. The revised projection now stands at $1.2 million by 2030, down from $1.5 million.
Stablecoins are scaling faster than anticipated, encroaching on Bitcoin's expected dominance as a financial tool in developing economies. Wood emphasized this shift during a CNBC interview, noting stablecoins have become the preferred digital asset in many regions.
The Bitcoin market shows signs of strain, with prices hovering near $103,000 after a 16% monthly decline. Even bullish proponents like Wood are recalibrating expectations as crypto market dynamics evolve.
Peter Schiff Repeats Call to Dump Bitcoin for Gold as BTC Nears $100K
Gold bug Peter Schiff has doubled down on his anti-Bitcoin stance, urging investors to sell BTC as it tests the $100,000 support level. The Euro Pacific Capital CEO claims the cryptocurrency will soon crash below this psychological threshold, while Gold - currently testing $4,000/oz - appears poised for breakout.
Schiff's November 7 provocation reignites the perennial gold vs. crypto debate. Bitcoin's 1.4% rebound to $102,148 on November 8 suggests traders remain unfazed by his warnings. The precious metal held steady at $4,000, with neither asset showing the dramatic momentum shift Schiff predicted.
The analyst's latest salvo comes as both stores of value trade NEAR historic highs. Market participants appear to be maintaining diversified positions rather than executing wholesale rotations between the asset classes.
My First Bitcoin Expands Global Reach for Independent BTC Education
Non-profit organization My First Bitcoin (MFB) is rebranding and shifting its focus from local initiatives in El Salvador to a worldwide educational campaign. Originally launched as Mi Primer Bitcoin in 2021, the group has educated over 27,000 students through its BTC Diploma program, covering topics like fiat currency, Bitcoin's history, and cryptographic challenges.
The organization's workbook has been translated into 23 languages, with independent educators adopting its curriculum across continents. Now, MFB is retiring its Spanish name, restructuring its team, and pivoting to a global strategy—though details on operational closures remain undisclosed.
Bitcoin Faces Deepening Bear Market as Support Levels Fail to Hold
Bitcoin's decline has accelerated, with the cryptocurrency now trading 20% below its all-time high of $126,000. A major liquidation event on October 10 exacerbated the downturn, forcing Leveraged positions to unwind and pushing prices below critical support levels at $117,000 and $112,000. The failure to reclaim these levels signals eroding market confidence.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research, confirms the shift to a bear market phase. 'We haven’t reclaimed this level since the drop, which unfortunately confirms the bearish trend,' he stated. His firm had previously forecast a fall to $100,000 and now warns of further downside risk, noting that marginal buyers have retreated.
Fund managers with exposure via crypto ETFs may soon face additional pressure to reduce holdings, potentially intensifying the sell-off. The market appears weeks away from finding a bottom, with liquidity drying up as new investors stay sidelined.
Ancient Bitcoin Holders Stir: $52 Billion In Old Coins Revived This Year
On-chain data reveals a significant resurgence of dormant Bitcoin in 2025, with over $52 billion worth of coins inactive for at least five years reentering circulation. The revival spans three age cohorts: 5-7 years ($22.7 billion), 7-10 years ($16.2 billion), and 10+ years ($13.3 billion).
2024 remains the only year to surpass 2025's total revived supply—though with months remaining, this year may yet claim the record. The movement suggests long-term holders are capitalizing on market conditions or addressing lost wallets.
Is BTC a good investment?
BTC presents a high-risk/high-reward proposition at current levels. Key considerations:
| Metric | Value | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Price vs 20-DMA | -5.7% discount | Short-term bearish |
| Bollinger Band Position | Lower boundary test | Oversold potential |
| MACD Trend | Converging | Momentum shift |
Michael advises: "Dollar-cost averaging makes sense here. The $95K-$110K range should see accumulation, but prepare for 15% volatility in either direction." Long-term holders benefit from Bitcoin's scarcity mechanics, while traders should monitor the $100K support closely.
Sovereign gold narrative gaining media traction
Concentration of old coin movements
Potential cascade below $100K support
